Ban opinion polls if it goes against you!

Suddenly, despite more serious violations, opinion polls have become the primary free speech issue for political parties. While the Congress party has come out in favour of the Election Commission (EC) proposal to ban opinion polls, the BJP termed the Congress support for the proposal as the response of a ‘loser’ while other parties like the CPM and Aam Aadmi Party, who also oppose any such ban, have qualified it by seeking some transparency in the conduction of opinion polls. 

BJP leader Arun Jaitley wrote an article on the party’s website linking the proposal to the Information and Broadcasting Ministry’s directive on telecast of the Prime Minister’s speeches and the TRAI restrictions on advertising. Not to be outdone, the party’s Prime Ministerial candidate and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi blogged that the proposal was an attack on free speech and asserted that even Bhishma in the Mahabharat was alert to public opinion! 

The irony of Modi speaking of attacks on free speech or of sensitivity to public opinion isn’t lost on anyone. Even as he wrote up his blog on what he termed the ‘puerile’ stance of the EC, social activists spoke up about the denial of their freedom of expression as they were detained in their homes and prevented from travelling to Rajpipala to protest the ‘statue of unity’ in Gujarat! 

Presently, the EC can ban opinion polls 48 hours prior to voting but the current proposal was to extend the period to cover the entire election schedule on the grounds that opinion polls can exert undue influence on voters. Adding fuel to the fire this time round, the Attorney General GoolamVahanvati felt that such a ban was constitutionally permissible.  

Already, the EC will have its hands full as it plans to monitor campaigning on social media but how it will actually do so is anybody’s guess. But the ban on opinion polls is an old issue. In 1998, the Supreme Court had clearly stated that the EC did not have the powers to ban opinion polls. Then, as now, the political parties were divided in their response.In 2004, the EC suggested that the BJP-led NDA government bring in an ordinance banning opinion polls, but an adverse opinion from then Attorney General Soli Sorabjee on its constitutional viability put paid to the idea. However, all the political parties agreed to an EC proposal to ban exit polls. 

Nonetheless, as this report from Frontline says, the primary issue – whether a ban on opinion polls is an attack on Art 19 (1) of the Constitution – has been enough of a teaser since 1998. India was well into liberalization and the rash of opinion polls from burgeoning private television channels promoted the EC to issue guidelines banning exit and opinion polls. But the EC decided to be prudent and withdraw the guidelines after a Constitutional bench of the Supreme Court indicated that it might not have the administrative powers under Art 324 to curb the media’s indulgence with opinion polls. 

So what has changed since 1998? Definitely, opinion pollsters are far more aggressive and intrusive, there is little transparency in the commissioning of polls or in the collection and processing of data. But banning opinion polls is not a solution. Laying down codes and regulation is the way forward but which authority will actually regulate opinion polls? The Press Council code is applicable for print media but not for broadcast media. 

Like paid news, rampant in the media despite the EC threat of disqualification of candidates, selective television coverage and social media memes, rhetoric that obfuscate real issues, freebies from sarees to laptops, opinion polls are part and parcel of the noise and lucre election campaigning drums up. The real question is whether voters still get to exercise their choice, without fear or influence. Now, that is a free speech issue.