Pre-poll surveys irk YSR CP and TDP in Andhra

Two poll surveys, one by the Telugu channel NTV and the other by the English national channel CNN IBN, beamed a couple of days back, evoked strong reactions by two major political of parties viz the YSR Congress Party (YSR CP) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), who are the leading contenders for power in Andhra Pradesh, especially in Seemandhra region that consists of thirteen districts in Andhra (9 districts) and Rayalaseema (4 districts) regions. Seeamandhra is the residuary part of Andhra Pradesh state which has been recently bifurcated to form Telangana.

On March 30, NTV aired its findings of the state level survey in Andhra Pradesh, which was conducted with Nielson. According to this survey, the YSR Congress Party with 48 percent of the vote share will get 129 to 133 assembly seats in Seemandhra region followed by the TDP which, with 40 percent of vote share of 40, is projected to get 42 to 46 assembly seats. The total number of Assembly seats in Seemandhra is 175 as against the total seats of 294 in Andhra Pradesh. The ruling party Congress and the Jai Samaikyandhra Party (JSP), recently floated by the former chief minister Kiran Kumar Reddy, along with other outfits like BJP, Lok Satta etc are not at all in reckoning for power, according to the survey. For the Lok Sabha, the survey predicts 23 to 25 seats for the YSR CP, and 3 to 5 Lok Sabha seats each for the TDP and the Congress.

This survey came in for severe criticism by the TDP. If the reaction of the TDP for the survey findings is Pavlovian, its argument against the findings was ferocious. Participating in the panel discussion by the same channel, that is NTV, senior TDP leader and party MP, CM Ramesh not only questioned the credibility of the survey but also threw a challenge to the channel’s anchor conducting the panel discussion. His challenge which was carried by some newspapers and some other channels was this: “Your survey predicted 46 assembly seats to the TDP. I multiply this figure by two, which makes it 92. My party will get double the number seats your survey predicted. If my party gets even one seat less than that figure, that is 92, in the coming assembly elections, I will resign as an MP and take political ‘sanyas’. Will you close your channel, if your findings go wrong?”

Mr. Ramesh said that he would go to court seeking an enquiry into the veracity of the findings by the channel. This argument was carried out as a matter of fact statement by some other Telugu channels and print media.

Now let’s take a look at the findings of the CNN IBN-Lokniti survey that led to angry reaction from YSR CP leaders. As part of election tracker 2014, the CNN IBN had been beaming its findings since January. Its March edition of findings was started on Monday and details of Andhra Pradesh were beamed on Tuesday night. According to the CNN IBN findings, the TDP will get 13 to 19 Lok Sabha seats followed by YSR Congress with 9 to 15. It gave 4 to 8 Lok sabha seats each to TRS and Congress. The total number of Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh is 42 (Seemandhra 25 and Telangana 17).

These findings were not only strongly contested; they were also questioned by the senior YSR Congress leader Mr. Mysoora Reddy. Mr. Reddy, once a staunch political rival of Dr Rakasekha Reddy (both belong to the Cuddupaih district in Rayalaseema) crossed over to TDP, became a Rajya Sabha member and after failing to get a re-nomination had joined the YSR CP. Mr. Reddy said that the CNN IBN survey was “misleading and meant to help the sagging image of the TDP. It has no sanctity”. The sample of the survey is too small (just about 1300 persons, according to Mr.Reddy) to be true, was the argument.

Mr. Ramesh of the TDP dubbed the survey as a “paid programme”. Since Saakshi channel and the paper, owned by Mr. Jagan Mohana Reddy, had completely lost credibility, the leaders tried to ‘hire’ services of some others, Mr. Ramesh alleged.

Apprehensions are being expressed about the credibility and veracity of poll time surveys. Print media is already beset with the serious problem of ‘paid news’. And now, the allegations of ‘paid programmes’. During the election time it becomes all the more glaring because of the high stakes involved.

The authorities concerned at the district level (in Visakhapatnam district) have decided to form a committee to monitor ‘paid news’ in the print and ‘paid programmes’ in the electronic media. The committee would comprise of the Head of the Department of Journalism, Andhra University, a senior public relations officer and two journalists as members. Will it serve the intended purpose? It is anybody’s guess.

Such articles are only possible because of your support. Help the Hoot. The Hoot is an independent initiative of the Media Foundation and requires funds for independent media monitoring. Please support us. Every rupee helps.