The art of fixing opinion polls
Data can be fudged, and one opinion poll can differ from another although the respondent base is the same.
AJITH PILLAI “discovers†that when money is involved figures can be changed at will.
Dipped in Witriol
AJITH PILLAI
(A farce recorded last week by a secret cam at the 007th milestone, a farmhouse off the Delhi-Jaipur highway.)
Characters:
Ed: The editor
Dep: His deputy
P: The enterprising pollster
The recording opens in a garish and expansive private dining room in the farmhouse. The curtains are of the shimmering kind--loud velvet red. The spotlight is on three men seated at a table in the centre of the room. Waiters hover around with platters full of jalebis, rasgollas, and payasam for those who wish to have a sugar rush with their Scotch. The bare walls are adorned with giant pizzas looking like Trojan shields waiting to be sliced. Samosas and sachets of ketchup rain down on the three guests as if the roof had opened up. Young men dressed like burgers and patties strut around eyeing the pizzas. To complete the ambience, in the background two guitarists, a keyboard player, and a singer, who looks like he wants to call a cab back home or is missing his mother, belt out old Bollywood hits with the mikes and the amplifiers switched off. The crooner can understand why he should not disturb the guests with his baritone but wonders why he is forbidden from scratching his back when he’s not singing.
The men seated at the table are oblivious of their surroundings (as they are of various political realities) or of the spy cam. The editor, Ed, is seated on a bigger chair with a bucket of soap suds in case he wishes to surf, a bird who can tweet, and some tablets he can read to fight sleep have also been provided. His wizened deputy resembles one of those guys who went to Yusgur’s farm to trip during Woodstock. The pollster in his business suit looks like a man who just heard one more respondent say Don’t know/Can’t Say.
Action begins as the light dims because of a drop in voltage:
Ed: (sipping his Blue Label and clicking his fingers) So, let’s get down to business. What do the results show?
P: (downing his rum and coke) The majority (75 per cent) didn’t want FDI in retail. They were also against the diesel price hike.
Dep: (glugging his Scotch) That isn’t quite the result we wanted!
P: (almost apologetic) Well, that’s what our poll shows…
Ed: (After a 30-second pause and a jalebi): It all sounds bizarre! There must be some mistake. Are you sure you asked the right question? Was it FDI or the FBI in retail?
Dep (seconding his boss): Perhaps, 75 per cent were against the FBI. And that’s understandable--no one wants the Feds to run our malls.
P: Sir, let me assure you, we never get our questionnaire wrong.
Ed: (visibly irritated): You know, the client is always right.
P: Sir, I agree, Left or Right he’s always right.
Dep: (charged up) And the customer is king!
P: (totally subdued) Sir, I have no doubts about that--even if he has a kink or two he is the king.
Ed: (trying to keep his cool): Remember Mr P, we run a publication and you know having a gun with an empty magazine is like having a car without tyres.
P: Right sir, an empty magazine is like stories without facts or columns without canons.
Dep: (stepping up the tirade) Now don’t teach us about canons and columns. We want you to give us some good figures that live up to our expectations.
P: I can send you a colleague--he is good with figures of speech and innovative phrases. He knows all that stuff--as sober as a judge, as white as a barfi, and as old as yesterday’s sambar… Sir, he’s quite smart…
Ed: (almost losing his cool) I’m talking about figures man, poll results!
P: You mean general election outcomes--2004 or 2009..?
Dep (exasperated): Your opinion poll results, silly!
P: (with a knowing smile): Oh, you want the figures fudged! Why didn’t you say that before? We can do it but it will cost you a lot more than the estimates submitted earlier. You see, we will have to do some re-polling or, at least, pretend we have done that.
Dep: You can do that kind of err… fudging, can you?
P: Well, we can do some number crunching and enhancing.
Ed : So, what will your new tally be?
P: Seventy five per cent for FDI and 25 per cent against it. And--to add a new element--100 per cent against the FBI in retail.
Dep: (incredulous) You mean you will invert the results!
P: Well sir, like some wit once put it, when money is involved people forget their principles and fudge their data. Also, going by Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle the “more precisely the position (of an electron) is determined, the less precisely the momentum is known that instant and vice versa.” So one opinion poll can differ from the other though the respondent base is the same and the surveys are carried out one after the other.
Dep: (perplexed) How on earth do you know about the Uncertainty Principle? Did you get that from a net search? I get a lot of my stuff off the internet.
P: If you please, I happen to be an IIT graduate…
Ed: (rather curious) Oh, so what are you doing in a survey agency? Didn’t you find a proper marketing job?
P: No sir, the demand for engineers is down. Our USP has slipped ever since doctors, nuclear physicists, pharmacists, philosophers, and journalists moved into marketing. They say if Plato was around he would be selling soap and writing rap operas. But thankfully, fudging figures still has some scope although we try to be as honest as possible. But honesty, as you know, doesn’t pay.
Dep: It sure doesn’t. But young man, you sure have a way with words. By the way, who’s your boss? We’d like a word with him to show our appreciation for your cooperation.
P: (with a measure of pride) Sir, I’ve taken over the business ever since my boss had a breakdown after doing several surveys on top ten chewing gums, fifty best safety pins to take on a space journey, the 100 worst places to change a leopard’s spot and why men are scared of women who write graffiti or phone the police.
Ed: (winding up the discussion): Interesting, but we expect you to send your revised poll ASAP. And yes, your bill--you shall be compensated.
P: Thank you, all this survey fixing has sure been rather exciting. One more for the road…?
(Fade even as the singer yawns his swan song for the night into the silent microphone).