Can Facebook swing the vote?
A study claims that digital media will play a decisive role in the 2014 elections.
PATRICK GHOSE says that this can happen only after Internet access increases and embraces non-English speakers. Graphic: Iris Knowledge Foundation.
If Facebook were a country, it would be the third most populated country in the world. Recently, a claim was made that users of this digital social media are going to have a decisive voice in the results of the imminent general elections of the world's largest democracy and the second most populated nation, India. While there is no denying that Indian users of social media are growing exponentially, a significant say in swinging the ballot, is still in the realm of future possibility rather than immediacy.
The Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI) report ‘Social Media & Lok Sabha Elections’ begins with an awe-inducing statement: “Indian democracy is on the cusp of a revolution led by social media users.” It goes on to vigorously state that, based on figures from a study by the independent IRIS Knowledge Foundation available in March 2013, “social media is now sufficiently widespread to have the power to influence the outcome of the next elections to the Lok Sabha and consequently government formation.”
Venky Vembu, commenting on the above report in Firstpost.com, observes: “that in a country as complex and as populous as India, you can establish the case for a market for just about any goods or service, and back it up with surveys and studies.”
Somewhere between the two lies what is a certain, though evolving, reality.
In an earlier report titled ‘Social Media in India 2012’ published by the IAMAI in association with the research agency IMRB, a few things are established. One, as of June 2013, we have an estimated 89 million people (up from 84 million in December 2012) who are active users of the Internet,. At least 66 million of them are users of social media, and this too is up from 62 million in December 2012. They make up about 40 percent of all claimed Internet users. The growth in users during the compared periods is only 5-6 per cent.
Secondly, of these active internet users, about 84 per cent are in the ‘Young Men’ category, the bulk of them also presumably falling in the ‘College Going’ category. And that 34 per cent of the urban social networking base are in the top eight metro cities.
Thirdly, the active mobile internet user base in India is 39.7 million and that 32.5 million are active social network users (second only to email); they use it seven days a week; and “Facebook is the leading website accessed by 97 per cent of all Social Media users in India”. This last sentence seems to be the core thought leading up to the report ‘Social Media & Lok Sabha Elections’.
In August 2012, IAMAI and IMRB issued another report, this time on ‘Internet in Rural India’, where they inform us that there are 38 million claimed Internet users and 31 million active users in rural India. According to the report, the number of claimed Internet users in rural India is expected to reach 45 million by December 2012. The report further states that mobile phones are fast emerging as an important point of Internet access in rural India. As of June 2012, there were 3.6 million mobile Internet users in India, a growth of 7.2 times from 0.5 million in 2010.”
The 2011 census tells us that there are 1,21,01,93,422 persons in India. The rural-urban distribution is about 69:31. The average literacy rate is 74 per cent with rural literacy pegged at 69 per cent and urban at 85 per cent. It also tells us that 9.5 per cent of the population own computers/laptops. 77,08,521 households have Internet access, both broadband and lesser speeds, making it about 3 per cent of the total population and a little over 9 per cent of computer-owning houses. 63 per cent of the houses own telephones and of them 53 per cent own mobiles only. (We don't know how many of those hand-held devices can access the Internet.) With the easy availability of smartphones which can access the Internet, the potential is immense and yet to be exploited fully.
There seem to be oversights and errors of omission in their conclusions. For lack of corroborating information, we must presume that there is a certain overlap between active Internet users on mobile devices as well as desktops/laptops, and those who only access the Internet from cyber cafés or their work/study places, statistics most likely ignored in both the reports.
If Facebook is to be the predominant social medium which will have the power to influence the outcome of the next general elections then the user needs to have a more-than-basic knowledge of the English language, a fairly good understanding of how the computer application works, and most particularly that the user is be a registered and willing voter. None of these statistics have been provided, and if they are, would at best be guesstimates.(see graphic here)
Listed in the IAMAI report are the possible implications of their study on contestants. The obvious one is that no contestant can avoid using social media as part of their campaign strategy. As they say, “A well thought out social media campaign will not only be about retaining previously won seats but also about wresting new seats… While there can be no two views on the fact that social media usage is a largely urban phenomenon, a rapidly urbanising India with even small towns reporting fairly active social media usage offers pointers to how campaign focus may need to be in order to gain new wins and while retaining the existing seats.” What would need to aid this is the development of reliable web and mobile apps which will take macro-Indian and even micro-level considerations into their application where needed and in a gamut of Indian languages, to be really effective. Perhaps something along the lines of the Indian Railways app now in use. However, what impact this might have in rural India we can merely wait and watch.
Next comes what is apparently the crux of their study whereby they have classified high, medium and low impact cities and towns which may define the success or obverse by not using just social media, but specifically Facebook, for election purposes. This is being pointed out as the primary way of getting across to an existing “critical mass.”
“We have used the number of Facebook users as an indication of the clout of social media instead of analysing their behaviour to see if they are really active and showing signs of wanting to make an impact. However, we feel that this criticism may not hold as the mere presence on Facebook allows users access to alternate sources of information and divergent points of view. Also Facebook users, even when passive, turn out to be listeners and there is enough evidence to suggest that when the time for action arrives, they may act in ways that could surprise everyone by the unexpected nature of their reaction. Hence the numbers are certainly a reasonable basis to form conclusion. Without a doubt, a critical mass exists.” This is quoted from the 'Limitations and Caveats' section in the report.
“... alternate sources of information and divergent points of view” is perhaps where the problem lies. Information not always reliable, often suspect in origin, confusing, and usually too weak in presentation to rally the masses.
If nothing else, the report tends towards the naive rather than an attempt at a deeper understanding of where digital social media is currently positioned in India and what it might hold for an expanding, connected, and increasingly networked population in the future. To wit, “For instance, we wonder how a voter would react when faced with the choice of electing an MP whose attendance record in Parliament is dismal or whose election affidavit shows that his personal fortune has increased manifold over the last five years or whose comments display a huge level of insensitivity towards women.”
In October 2010, journalist, author and speaker Malcolm Gladwell wrote in the New Yorker, “The platforms of social media are built around weak ties. Twitter is a way of following (or being followed by) people you may never have met. Facebook is a tool for efficiently managing your acquaintances, for keeping up with the people you would not otherwise be able to stay in touch with. That’s why you can have a thousand ‘friends’ on Facebook, as you never could in real life...The Internet lets us exploit the power of these kinds of distant connections with marvellous efficiency. It’s terrific at the diffusion of innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, seamlessly matching up buyers and sellers, and the logistical functions of the dating world. But weak ties seldom lead to high-risk activism.”
“Social networks are particularly effective at increasing motivation,” Aaker and Smith write. But that’s not true. Social networks are effective at increasing participation—by lessening the level of motivation that participation requires.” Jason Falls commenting in Social Media Explorer on Gladwell's commentary says, “This isn’t to say social networks aren’t powerful or meaningful or cannot help facilitate revolution, activism and social change. They can. But they help facilitate it, not drive it.”
If one looks at what is popularly called The Arab Spring some three years ago, causing the domino effect that began in Tunisia and spread across a large swathe of the Arab world, it seems to belie Gladwell's theory, since these mass movements apparently motivated and added enthusiastic participation with the use of digital technologies. But as Lisa Goldman in techpresident.com proffers, “Egyptian activists always rejected vigorously the notion that social media drove their revolution. It was the outcome of old-fashioned grassroots organising on the ground, they insisted. To support their claim, they point to the fact that the critical mass of people descended to the streets during the five days the Mubarak regime shut off the Internet and mobile phone networks.” In India, some tend to compare the 2009 'Pink Chaddi' campaign on Facebook as a similar online movement of digital activism. It is interesting to note that four years on, the Pink Chaddi website today no longer functions for its original purpose as is the case for their Facebook page.
In “Book One - To Be” from Digital Alternatives With A Cause? published by Centre for Internet & Society and Hivos Knowledge Programme (ed. Nishant Shah & Fieke Jansen, 2011), it is said, “For many digital natives, the social network works as a safety net – they might never use their social networks in order to mobilise crowds for change, but it is the space that they think of as the first platforms of expression.”
Digital platforms, first and foremost, require Internet connections and to be even more relevant, high-speed broadband connectivity. As is evident from the earlier data referred to, and as the CII-PWC study ‘India Entertainment and Media Outlook 2012’ points out, “India lags behind in terms of Internet subscribers. To a large extent, this is due to inadequate wire-line infrastructure in the country. To boost Internet access and advertising, it is important that broadband penetration and usage in the country increases manifold.” The study points out that in 2011, India's household Internet penetration was 9 per cent compared to 35 per cent for China and 98 per cent for Japan. Mobile Internet penetration for the same year was 4 per cent compared to 26 and 88 per cent for China and Japan respectively. It is quite evident from the report that the “key game changer” in India is still television, with cable and satellite TV available in an average of over 80 per cent of television households. Household Internet penetration is expected to grow to 17.3 per cent in 2015 from 9.2 per cent in 2011. The 2012 report points out that “India's national broadband policy target was to achieve 20 million subscribers by 2010 and that still seems a fair distance away.” They make a telling point when they state “most of the web content in India is in English and there is an urgent need to make vernacular content available to foster wider uptake and usage of Internet among people across the country.”
Data can be enlightening – or confusing when there is such a plethora of it. In such circumstances, it is only a viable indicator of what we can expect and what might be projected by the many studies referred to. There is no denying that increasing access to high-speed and reliable Internet can rival television as an active game-changer in the electoral fortunes of contestants. What will be another key factor in these changes is increasing access to the Internet on mobile devices.
Perhaps there will come a time when exercising one's franchise will be possible online. However, in the present scenario, the objective of digital social media should primarily be as an instrument to facilitate instant communication and information, and to act as a motivator for the urban voter to go cast a vote at a polling booth. It is unlikely to so hurriedly and replace ground-based physical action, which will continue to be the deciding factor for the next general elections.
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