Jan Jan ki Baat: Really?

BY JEFF JOSEPH PAUL KADICHEENI| IN Digital Media | 24/11/2016

On November 22, a new history was created in India. Daily reports on TV news channels and in newspapers were increasingly showing the many after effects of the demonetization move announced on 8^th November 2016.

Parliament had been brought to a standstill. Many a parliamentarian of questionable integrity was hitting the streets to oppose the measure, in the name of the common man. Every day new regulations were being announced to tackle the difficulties being faced. The general population was still running from pillar to post and many in desperation were shedding tears over their helplessness.

The whole affair was becoming a source of negative news for the Government. For the first time since the 2014 election, the Government had taken a stand which was increasingly becoming unpopular on the ground. Apart from the many stars, TV panellists and online commentators, no one seemed to be enjoying the long queues. Patience appeared to be wearing thin.

It was then that a mobile application, the NM app, launched a survey to gauge public opinion about demonetization. The Prime Minister urged people to take the survey. This was a much needed feedback measure for the Government. But was this really intended to be a feedback mechanism?

The survey: what really happened?

The survey required the app to be downloaded on a mobile phone and a ten question survey to be answered. The answers to the questions were to be in the form of interactive tools like scrolling a pointer to mark the level of satisfaction or a simple Yes or No option.  

The questions asked by the Prime Minister were:

1. Do you think that black money exists in India?

1. Yes
2. No

2. Do you think the evil of corruption and black money needs to be fought and eliminated?

1. Yes
2. No

3. Overall, what do you think about the Government's moves to tackle black money?

• Scale of 1 to 5 - Bad Experience, Could Improve, It’s Okay, Nice, Brilliant

4. What do you think of the Modi Government's efforts against corruption so far?

• Scale of 1 to 5 – Very Poor, Poor, Don’t Know, Good, Very Good

5. What do you think of the Modi Government's move of banning old Rs 500 &Rs 1000 notes?

1. Great move in the right direction
2. Good move
3. Will make no difference

6. Do you think demonetisation will help in curbing black money, corruption & terrorism?

1. It will have an immediate impact
2. There will be impact in medium to long term
3. Minimal impact
4. Don't know

7. Demonetisation will bring real estate, higher education, healthcare in the common man's reach

1. Completely Agree
2. Partially Agree
3. Can't say

8. Did you mind the inconvenience faced in our fight to curb corruption, black money, terrorism and counterfeiting of currency?

1. Not at all
2. Somewhat, but it was worth it
3. Yes

9. Do you believe some anti-corruption activists are now actually fighting in support of black money, corruption and terrorism?

1. Yes
2. No

10. Do you have any suggestions, ideas or insights you would like to share with PM Narendra Modi?

This last question asked for comments and suggestions from the survey respondents.

The results – no surprises here

The next day, on 23^rd November, the Jan Jan Ki Baat Public Opinion Survey on Demonetization results were announced. Much to the satisfaction of the Prime Minister and his supporters, the result was overwhelming support from the over 500,000 people who responded. The rest of the details can be seen in the pictorial as released by them, reproduced below.   

Though the approval percentage does remind one of the election results of dictatorial regimes, it was to be expected as it is now common knowledge that the middle class, which forms the BJP’s and Narendra Modi’s most vocal support group, is also the ones who are most active online. It is from here that the majority of “proud” Hindu nationalist Twitter warriors emerge, defending their turf inch for inch and trolling personalities expressing any counter opinion or criticism directed at the Government. They are the ones with the smart phones and internet affordability. Given these factors, the response is not surprising.

What was surprising was the stated purpose of the survey and its targeted audience.

Why hold this survey?

In their own words, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the demonetisation of old 500 and 1000 rupee notes on 8^th November 2016, in his address to the nation. Since then, the debate around demonetization has taken various dimensions. Many media houses have, in sample surveys conducted by them, reported the overwhelming support for the government’s decision. On social media, there have been innovative ways in which people have expressed their support for the move. Other people have expressed their support in multiple ways – through their own recorded videos, of recording voices of support of people around them, many conducting impromptu surveys in markets and small towns, volunteers speaking to farmers and traders – all expressing the common view that they supported the move even though they did face some temporary inconvenience.

Shri Narendra Modi's belief in participative governance and direct engagement with people is unwavering. Time and again, he has directly engaged with the people and sought their views on a wide range of issues. It is his belief that the strength of 125 crore Indians has the power to propel India to newer heights.

It was then decided to speak directly to the people and take their views in an open, free, fair, and equitable poll. Instead of intermediaries speaking on behalf of people, let the people speak for themselves. Let them say whether they support or oppose the demonetization move. Let them offer suggestions to alleviate the genuine inconveniences that some people may be facing. If someone has a well-argued case of opposing the move, let them say that too. Overall, instead of just opinion, let data speak for the support for the move.

The questions to which Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought answers were comprehensive and direct.  The questions also included the opportunity to give feedback. The overall aim included means to make the implementation stronger and more effective.

Targeted audience and the “equitable poll”

So here was an “equitable poll” held to “speak directly to the people” without any “intermediaries” so that the “final data would speak for the support for the move”. Everything was pre-decided. No matter what, the data would speak in support for the move.

India’s total telephone subscribers with wireless connections is 1034.25 million. India had in August 2016 become the second biggest smartphone market in terms of active unique smartphone users. It has over 220 million users, ahead of the USA. The smartphone penetration of the total potential population is still below 30 per cent.

Any poll conducted to gauge the response and opinions of 125 crore Indians cannot be called an equitable one as long as its target audience is limited to a maximum of 220 million. Be that as it may, the total number of respondents was 0.5 million or five lakhs. That is 0.04% of India’s population and 0.22% of the targeted audience.

Surveys are always sample space dependent. But this wasn’t a regular survey conducted by a small time newspaper amongst its readership or by a researcher for a thesis. This is the Prime Minister of India’s attempt to gauge the country’s response for a policy initiative facing criticism.  

Directed questions don’t equal taking people’s views

Leaving that aside, a poll conducted to “speak directly to the people” should at least have tried to gauge the actual response from amongst this targeted audience. The 0.5 million respondents were asked questions which can never have any answer which wouldn’t put the Government in a good light. They may as well have published the results even before they opened the poll and it wouldn’t have made much difference.

In not so recent times, Facebook conducted a survey amongst its users in support of Free Basics, in response to a consultation paper on Differential Pricing by TRAI. Any support resulted in automated responses being sent to TRAI. Facebook’s tie up with Reliance Communications to launch the programme in India was eventually barred by TRAI on the grounds that such simplified responses cannot equal submission of comments on a policy consultation.

Do you support Free Internet for all, Facebook had asked. Do you think black money exists in India, asked the Prime Minister. One can’t but wonder who exactly are the 2% or 10,000 respondents who said they believe black money doesn’t exist in India.

Here was a poll conducted to gauge the mood of 1250 million (The website’s figure) while targeting 220 million users asking questions which always had only one answer - the Government is right, it is doing awesomely! It seems that even the seriousness which TRAI had in dealing with the Free Basics consultation paper was not demonstrated by the Prime Minister on an issue which is of immediate concern for everyone in India.

Or perhaps this was never meant to be a consultation to begin with. Was that why the focus was never on the “equitable poll” or “speaking directly to the people” but on the “final data” which“would speak for the support for the move”?

What was this really about?

The whole purpose of the exercise seems to have been to deflect attention from the teething problems being faced in the implementation and to counter growing opposition. It seems to have worked to a great extent as all the major newspapers--The Indian Express, The Hindustan Times, The Times of India, Dainik Bhaskar-- carried this news. This will give enough ammunition of “facts” for the online populations to live in their own little cocoons of comfortable beliefs. The Prime Minister and his team just made a counter “fact” so as to insulate his supporters from actually having to face the possible uncomfortable truth. This may also act to brainwash some fence sitters. Was this the real intended purpose of the survey?

One can only wonder that if so much energy could be spent on such opinion-manufacturing endeavours, why didn’t the Government put even half this effort into planning for the demonetization? Or is the present dispensation obsessed with online discourse and opinions?